More than half of adults in Toronto have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, but officials are urging the province to extend it stay-at-home order until cases drop further.

If the city continues its nearly six-month lockdown, new cases will plunge to about 400 a day, said Dr. Eileen de Villa, Toronto’s medical officer of health. 

But if Toronto opens up on May 20, when the province’s stay-at-home order is set to expire, new cases will continue to hover around 800, putting the city on track for a fourth wave, de Villa warned. 

“We have seen what happens when we rush to reopen,” de Villa told reporters Monday. “It always leads us to a resurgence of daily illness, hospitalizations and ultimately deaths.”

She urged the province to extend restrictions, which it is likely to do. 

Health Minister Christine Elliott said on Monday “we need to stay the course for right now.”

Before lifting restrictions, new cases provincewide need to be below 1,000 a day, Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer Dr. David Williams told reporters. The province reported 2,716 new cases on Monday.

Mayors in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area have asked the province to provide more details as soon as possible about whether the stay-at-home order will be extended beyond May 20. 

“As the Victoria Day long weekend approaches, people and businesses have begun to ask perfectly reasonable questions as to where things will stand as of that time, so they can make plans of all kinds, business and pleasure,” their statement said Monday. 

The city is also calling on the province to reopen outdoor recreation amenities, first closed in April to much criticism. Elliott has previously stated there’s no plans to change the rules around tennis courts or golf courses until cases significantly decline.

“This is a subject constantly being discussed by people in Toronto Public Health,” de Villa said.

The outdoors and warm weather are allies in helping people improve their mental and physical health in a way that reduces the spread of COVID-19, she said.

‘Signs for cautious optimism’

Toronto’s daily average of new COVID-19 cases was 843 over the weekend, as well as 1,095 hospitalizations and 269 patients moved into intensive care. Thirty-seven more people died. 

Still, the city’s data shows “some signs of improvement,” said de Villa. Throughout April, daily cases consistently topped 1,000.

“We are starting to see signs for cautious optimism with small decreases in case numbers.” 

Officials say the GTA is ramping up for its busiest vaccination week so far. 

“This is a non-stop effort,” Mayor John Tory said. “It’s about saving lives and getting life back to normal. It’s about hope, summer, jobs, family and good health.” 

With “laser focus” the city is looking at hitting its next target: 65 per cent of all adults receiving their first dose, he said.

That will likely happen by the end of May across Ontario, Elliott told reporters last week. 

Some community organizations are getting creative with their vaccine clinics, including the Jamaican Canadian Association that targeted Black residents and administered 2,231 doses this weekend. It offered Caribbean music and food. Most of the residents who were vaccinated at the clinic were between the ages of 18 and 30.